Our Research Methodology

PolicyCost.org uses rigorous data collection and analysis techniques to quantify the human, economic, and social impacts of recent federal policy changes. Our goal is to make these impacts visible and understandable through real-time counters that show the scale and scope of these changes.

This page explains our overall research approach, data sources, and calculation methodologies. For detailed information about specific counters, please visit the individual methodology pages linked below.

Research Approach

Our research process combines multiple approaches to ensure accuracy and comprehensiveness:

Advanced AI Research

We use AI research tools including Perplexity AI and Claude 3.7 Sonnet to systematically gather and analyze large volumes of policy data, economic indicators, and impact assessments. These tools help us identify patterns, correlations, and potential impacts that might be missed in manual research.

Primary Source Analysis

All AI-gathered data is verified against primary sources including government publications, peer-reviewed research, official statistics, and direct reports from affected agencies. We prioritize original documentation over secondary reporting.

Expert Validation

Our methodologies draw on established economic, public health, and policy analysis frameworks developed by recognized authorities in these fields. Where possible, we use calculation methods consistent with those used by government agencies and research institutions.

Conservative Estimation

When faced with a range of potential impacts, we generally use the more conservative estimates to avoid overstating effects. We acknowledge uncertainty and limitations in our methodology pages.

Individual Counter Methodologies

Each counter on PolicyCost.org focuses on a different aspect of policy impacts. Click below for detailed explanations of each counter's specific data sources, calculation methods, and assumptions:

Lives Interrupted

Methodology for tracking preventable deaths due to policy changes

Futures Diminished

Methodology for measuring altered life trajectories and opportunities

American Dream Deferred

Methodology for calculating economic costs to households and businesses

Prevention Opportunity Lost

Methodology for estimating future costs created by cutting prevention programs

Data Sources

PolicyCost.org draws on a wide range of data sources to ensure comprehensive coverage of policy impacts. Key sources include:

Government Data

Financial and Economic Analysis

Health and Humanitarian Impact Data

Research Institutions

Calculation Framework

Our counters combine several types of calculations to provide a comprehensive view of policy impacts:

Direct Impact Measurement

Where available, we use documented direct impacts of policy changes, such as reported job losses, funding cuts, or confirmed cases of preventable disease. These data points come from official reports, news coverage of verified events, and published studies.

Economic Modeling

For economic impacts, we use established economic models that show the relationship between policy changes (like tariffs or budget cuts) and outcomes (like job losses, market value reduction, or consumer price increases). We draw on models published by respected economic research institutions.

Public Health Impact Projection

Health impact projections use peer-reviewed epidemiological models that link funding and policy changes to health outcomes. These include established models for estimating excess mortality, disease burden, and healthcare access impacts.

Time-Based Accumulation

Our counters show accumulated impacts since January 2025, when most of these policy changes began. We calculate values based on the documented start date of each policy change and its rate of impact over time.

Important Note on Data Interpretation

PolicyCost.org uses real data that has been extrapolated to represent the ongoing impacts of current policy changes. While we strive for accuracy, these counters are designed to provide a visceral, immediate understanding of the scale and scope of impacts that might otherwise remain abstract.

The figures presented are evidence-based estimates built on the best available data. They are intended to visualize real trends and consequences rather than make precise predictions. Our goal is to make visible what might otherwise remain hidden in technical reports and policy documents – the human and economic costs of policy decisions.

Complete Reference List

Below is a sample list of sources used in developing PolicyCost.org and its counters: